Binary outcomes (HIP-4)

HIP-4 binary outcomes are native Hyperliquid prediction markets. Each market is a yes/no question with an order book, just like a spot market — but the two “tokens” are the YES and NO sides of an outcome.

How a market works

• A market asks a clear question with a defined resolution (e.g. “Will ETH close above $X on date Y?”).
• You buy UP (YES) or DOWN (NO) shares. Prices float between 0.001 and 0.999 USDC, reading as the implied probability.
• At resolution, the winning side’s shares redeem for 1 USDC and the losing side for 0.
• You can sell out early at the current market price at any time before resolution.

Trading on the market page

Each market has its own page with:

• The question, a live chance (current probability), and a countdown to resolution.
• A price chart and market depth.
• An order book, recent trades, and activity.
• A trade panel with Buy UP / Buy DOWN and a sizing input.

Because HIP-4 markets have a real order book, they support the same order types as spot — market, limit, stop-loss, and take-profit — so you can set a price, cap risk, or take profit automatically.

Recurring families & the archive

• Families — many questions recur (a daily BTC market, a weekly ETH market). Each family has a page that lists every past instance and how it settled, so you can study the track record.
• Archive — one-off event markets (sports finals, macro releases, rate decisions) move to the archive once settled, with their final outcomes.

Settlement

When a market resolves, the outcome is determined by its resolution source and winning shares become redeemable for 1 USDC each. Your outcome positions and their status show up under the Outcomes tab of your Portfolio.